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Early Pages LMF Monthly Global Warming Prediction Index Series

Earlier pages in the  LMF Monthly Global Warming Prediction Index Series


In this series, we track the monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies (average global temperature) as measured by Satellite, against the UN IPCC projected 2.3 Cº/century central projection of warming since 2005 in IPCC (2013: in press) based on the output of 34 climate models running under four radiative-forcing scenarios. The entire observed trend line is below the IPCC’s least projection of 1.1 Cº/century. The IPCC’s high-end projection of warming to 2050, equivalent to 3.6 Cº/century, already seems far-fetched.

 

LMF Monthly Global Warming Prediction Index Series - October 2013 HERE

Apologies, due to the US Government Shutdown the Index was delayed this month.

See Press Full Release HERE

 

 203 months without any global warming at all


LMF Monthly Global Warming Prediction Index Series - September 2013 HERE

See Press Full Release HERE

 

 202 months without any global warming at all


LMF Monthly Global Warming Prediction Index Series - August 2013 HERE

See Press Full Release HERE

 

He has added: “Global warming is no longer cool.”

200 months without any global warming at all

 
On the mean of all five global-temperature datasets, since the new millennium began on 1 January 2001 there has been no global warming at all for 150 months (12 years 6 months: left). According to the RSS satellites, since December 1996 there has been none for 200 months (16 years 8 months: right). The NOAA’s 2008 State of the Climate report said 15+ years without warming would indicate a discrepancy between prediction and observation.
 
The Lord Monckton Foundation’s monthly Global Warming Projection Index number for August 2013 is 0.22 Cº, That is how much the IPCC’s central projection of global warming over the 8 years 7 months January 2005 to July 2013 has overshot the observed temperature trend. The long pause in global warming continues.
 
ØIf the 103-month IPCC overshoot were to continue for 100 years, the IPCC’s prediction would exceed the measured trend by 2.58 Cº.
 
ØThough the IPCC projects that the world should have warmed by 0.20 Cº (2.33 Cº/century) since 2005, the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite datasets shows cooling of 0.02 Cº (0.25 Cº/century). The predicted and actual trends are visibly diverging. Solar physicists expect significant cooling in the coming decades.
 
ØThe trend in CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa shows a rise of 17 μatm since January 2005, equivalent to 203 μatm/century. On its own, this CO2 increase should have caused a radiative forcing of 0.24 Watts per square meter, or 0.34 W m–2 after including the influence of all other greenhouse gases. Even without temperature feedbacks, according to the IPCC’s methods this forcing should have caused 0.1 Cº warming. Adding in the IPCC’s temperature estimates of temperature feedbacks and of previously-committed global warming should have caused up to 0.3 Cº warming since January 2005. None has occurred.
 
ØThere has been no global warming above the published measurement and coverage uncertainties for 17 years 6 months (HadCRUt4 dataset). Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC’s climate-science chairman, admitted in February 2013 that there had been a 17-year “pause” in global warming. Dr. Ben Santer has said that 17 years or more without warming would raise concerns about the reliability of the models.
 
Lord Monckton said: “In the global temperature record since 1850 there have been several previous periods of more than a decade without global warming. However, none coincided with so rapid an increase in CO2 concentration as we have seen in the past decade and a half. None of the computer models predicted so long a pause in global warming. Even when global warming resumes, it is likely to continue at a rate less than half of what had been predicted. It is becoming clear that CO2 has much less influence on global temperature than climate scientists had suspected.”
He has already added, "Global warming is no longer cool."


LMF Monthly Global Warming Prediction Index Series - July 2013 HERE

See Press Release HERE

The long pause in global warming continues

The Lord Monckton Foundation’s monthly Global Warming Projection Index number for July 2013 is 0.22 Cº, That is how much the IPCC’s central projection of global warming over the 8 years 6 months January 2005 to June 2013 has overshot the observed temperature trend. The long, unpredicted pause in global warming continues.
 
Ø If the 102-month IPCC overshoot were to continue for 100 years, the IPCC’s prediction would exceed the measured trend by 2.57 Cº. The IPCC’s central projection of global warming to 2050 is 2.33 Cº (Fifth Assessment Report).
 
Ø Though the IPCC projection shows the world should have warmed by 0.20 Cº since 2005, the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite global temperature datasets shows cooling of 0.02 Cº, equivalent to 0.24 Cº/century. The predicted and actual trends are visibly diverging. Solar physicists and mathematicians expect significant cooling over at least the next five years.
 
Ø The trend in CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa shows a rise of 17 μatm since January 2005, equivalent to 202 μatm/century. On its own, this CO2 increase should have caused a radiative forcing of 0.24 Watts per square meter, or 0.34 W m–2 after including the influence of all other greenhouse gases. Even without temperature feedbacks, according to the IPCC’s methods this forcing should have caused 0.1 Cº warming. Adding in the IPCC’s temperature estimates of temperature feedbacks and of previously-committed global warming should have caused up to 0.3 Cº warming since January 2005. None has occurred.
 
Ø The least-squares trend on the RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 16 years 7 months (199 months). The NOAA, in its 2008 State of the Climate report, said 15 years or more without warming would indicate a discrepancy between the models and the real world.
 
Ø There has been no global warming above the published measurement and coverage uncertainties for 17 years 5 months (HadCRUt4 dataset). Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC’s climate-science chairman, admitted in February 2013 that there had been a 17-year “pause” in global warming. Dr. Ben Santer has said that 17 years or more without warming would raise concerns about the reliability of the models.
 
Lord Monckton said: “The profiteers of doom were wrong. There is a growing gulf between the colorful predictions of the IPCC’s models and the less exciting real-world temperatures measured by satellites. Savage increases in the cost of fuel and power are needlessly causing hardship and death, and all in the name of a catastrophism that has now been thoroughly discredited by events. The bankrupt nations of the West should stop throwing good money after bad. The temperature record shows man-made climate change is a non-problem.”
 
He has already added: “Global warming is no longer cool.”
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
LMF Global Temperature Trend - Monthly Index Series - June 2013 HERE

The monthly comparison graph shows 34 models’ projections of global warming since January 2005 in the IPCC’s forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report (AR5: Fig. 11.33a) as an orange region. The central projection, the thick red line, is that the world should have warmed by 0.20 Cº since January 2005, at a rate equivalent to +2.33 Cº/century. Yet the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite measurements, the dark blue spline-curve over a bright blue trend-line, shows global cooling of 0.03 Cº over the 101 months, equivalent to –0.39 Cº/century. Since 2005 the models have thus over-predicted warming by 0.23 Cº, equivalent to +2.72 Cº/century. The correlation coefficient is zero and the period of study is short, but warming since 2005 is nothing like as rapid as predicted. The mismatch between the significant increase of 17 ppmv (200 ppmv/century) in the gray dogtooth curve of CO2 concentration and the insignificant cooling since 2005 is striking.


LMF Global Temperature Trend - Monthly Index Series - May 2013 HERE

 

Global cooling for 101 months: Satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies (dark blue) from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., and the University of Alabama at Huntsville for the 100 months January 2005 to April 2013 show a 0.3 Cº/century linear-regression cooling trend on the pale blue statistical insignificance interval, compared with the 2.3 Cº/century central projection of warming since 2005 in IPCC (2013: in press) based on the output of 34 climate models running under four radiative-forcing scenarios. The entire observed trend line is below the IPCC’s least projection of 1.1 Cº/century. The IPCC’s high-end projection of warming to 2050, equivalent to 3.6 Cº/century, already seems far-fetched. Image credit: Lord Monckton Foundation.

 

 

  • The Lord Monckton Foundation’s monthly Global Warming Projection Index number for August 2013 is 0.22 Cº, That is how much the IPCC’s central projection of global warming over the 8 years 7 months January 2005 to July 2013 has overshot the observed temperature trend. The long pause in global warming continues.
  • If the 103-month IPCC overshoot were to continue for 100 years, the IPCC’s prediction would exceed the measured trend by 2.58 Cº.
  • Though the IPCC projects that the world should have warmed by 0.20 Cº (2.33 Cº/century) since 2005, the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite datasets shows cooling of 0.02 Cº (0.25 Cº/century). The predicted and actual trends are visibly diverging. Solar physicists expect significant cooling in the coming decades.
  • The trend in CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa shows a rise of 17 μtm since January 2005, equivalent to 203 μtm/century. On its own, this CO2 increase should have caused a radiative forcing of 0.24 Watts per square meter, or 0.34 W m–2 after including the influence of all other greenhouse gases. Even without temperature feedbacks, according to the IPCC’s methods this forcing should have caused 0.1 Cº warming. Adding in the IPCC’s temperature estimates of temperature feedbacks and of previously-committed global warming should have caused up to 0.3 Cº warming since January 2005. None has occurred.
  • There has been no global warming above the published measurement and coverage uncertainties for 17 years 6 months (HadCRUt4 dataset). Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC’s climate-science chairman, admitted in February 2013 that there had been a 17-year "pause" in global warming. Dr. Ben Santer has said that 17 years or more without warming would raise concerns about the reliability of the models.

Lord Monckton said: "In the global temperature record since 1850 there have been several previous periods of more than a decade without global warming. However, none coincided with so rapid an increase in CO2 concentration as we have seen in the past decade and a half. None of the computer models predicted so long a pause in global warming. Even when global warming resumes, it is likely to continue at a rate less than half of what had been predicted. It is becoming clear that CO2 has much less influence on global temperature than climate scientists had suspected."

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